It’s crunch time in NFL Survivor contests right now. If you’re still alive (not me, alas), you’ve burned 13 teams so far this year. Maybe you didn’t use an elite team every week — maybe you skated by with “They aren’t good, but they’re playing Tennessee” a few times — but unless you’re just a wizard, you have burned several of the elite teams. That means your reliable options are starting to get pretty limited.Which brings me to the process for my Week 14 pick, below. And if you’re into numbers, don’t miss Aaron Schatz’s legendary content and our StatsHub advanced stats research tool for next-level insights.NFL Survivor Picks for Week 14Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. Also, just for the record — this game is “once you use a team, they’re off the board,” so I won’t pick a team I’ve already used. That said, I won’t eliminate such a team until I get to my final decision, because we don’t know if you used the team I used.Bye Week!The easiest ones. I can’t get these wrong! But our last ones. I might have to think more after this. Sad.Carolina Panthers
New England Patriots
New York Giants
San Francisco 49ersFour out. I like easy! We’ve got 28 more.Opponent Is Too GoodMaybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings.Arizona Cardinals (vs. LA Rams)
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Seattle)
Chicago Bears (@ Green Bay)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ Buffalo)
Dallas Cowboys (@ Detroit)
Houston Texans (@ Kansas City)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Houston)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Denver)
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Philadelphia)Nine more off the board, 19 to go.They’re Too BadYou can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We’ll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12.Cleveland Browns (vs. Tennessee)
Miami Dolphins (@ NY Jets)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Washington)
New Orleans Saints (@ Tampa Bay)
New York Jets (vs. Miami)
Tennessee Titans (@ Cleveland)
Washington Commanders (@ Minnesota)Seven more out leaves us with 12.Want more tools and analysis to keep you alive in your survivor pool? Check out PoolGenius for all the best offerings.Island GamesThis one isn’t a hard-and-fast category — if I don’t have another pick I like and feel like a prime-time (or Europe) game is just the overwhelming choice, I might double back. Generally speaking, the spotlight games are just weird. That’s not analysis, but also you know I’m right. I would much rather avoid games on Thursday, Sunday or Monday night, and I’d especially like to avoid overseas games.Detroit Lions (vs. Dallas)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ LA Chargers)Two more. We have 10 left — our nine contenders. That’s a bit more than I’d like, but we go where the steps take us.The ContendersOnce we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.Baltimore Ravens (vs. Pittsburgh)Model Projection: Ravens 25.93-18.50, Ravens 69.9% win ratePros: The Steelers look pretty washed, and now-42-year-old Aaron Rodgers appears to be broken.Cons: The Ravens … also look pretty washed, and Lamar Jackson looks also broken.Buffalo Bills (vs. Cincinnati)Model Projection: Bills 31.16-24.07, Bills 65.6% win ratePros: The Bills are a Super Bowl contender, while the Bengals are 4-8 and need a miracle down the stretch to even be on the “In the Hunt” graphic.Cons: Cincinnati has Joe Burrow back, and when he’s there the team can do anything.Denver Broncos (@ Las Vegas)Model Projection: Broncos 23.56-12.65, Broncos 82.6% win ratePros: The Broncos defense vs. what the Raiders offense has become? Goodness.Cons: Road game? Bo Nix question marks? I don’t feel strongly about any of the downsides, to be honest.Green Bay Packers (vs. Chicago)Model Projection: Packers 27.21-20.13, Packers 68.0% win ratePros: The Packers famously “own” the Bears, and they are rounding into form lately.Cons: The Bears appear to have the horseshoe-est horseshoe this year. That just happens sometimes, and betting against it is scary.Indianapolis Colts (@ Jacksonville)Model Projection: Colts 26.03-20.91, Colts 63.4% win ratePros: They’re tied by record, but all the deeper numbers say the Colts are much better than the Jaguars.Cons: A lot of those deeper numbers come from early in the season. Lately, the Colts have been much less impressive.Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis)Model Projection: Colts 26.03-20.91, Jaguars 36.6% win ratePros: See the pros and cons an inch or so above this? Reverse them.Cons: Do you trust Trevor Lawrence?Los Angeles Rams (@ Arizona)Model Projection: Rams 27.38-21.96, Rams 63.4% win ratePros: An angry Rams team that might be the best in football against a Cardinals team that has lost nine of 10.Cons: The Cardinals have lost games by 1, 3, 1, 4, 4, 3 and 3 this year. They aren’t good, but they aren’t this bad.Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Baltimore)Model Projection: Ravens 25.93-18.50, Steelers 30.1% win ratePros: Lamar Jackson is a shadow of himself right now. It’s hard to trust the Ravens at all.Cons: The counter is that you’d have to trust Aaron Rodgers.Seattle Seahawks (@ Atlanta)Model Projection: Seahawks 24.85-20.89, Seahawks 60.7% win ratePros: The Seahawks are No. 1 in overall DVOA right now. The Falcons are … super not.Cons: Sam Darnold hasn’t looked good in about a month.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. New Orleans)Model Projection: Buccaneers 24.61-17.14, Buccaneers 71.2% win ratePros: The Bucs are getting progressively healthier and need every win to stay on top of the NFC South.Cons: Even as they’re finally getting healthier, that doesn’t mean they are healthy yet.The PickTampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. New Orleans)I’m not saying I trust the Buccaneers overall, but even with Tyler Shough doing good enough so far, it’s not like he’s a reliable option. The Bucs, needing to win, in a home divisional game? I’m riding Tampa. (Yes, I’d take Denver if I hadn’t burned them already.)Honorable MentionDenver Broncos (@ Las Vegas) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Seattle Seahawks (@ Atlanta) — if you didn’t use them when I did2025 record: 11-2Week 1: Broncos (W)
Week 2: Rams (W)
Week 3: Chiefs (W)
Week 4: Packers (L)
Week 5: Cardinals (L)
Week 6: Steelers (W)
Week 7: Bears (W)
Week 8: Colts (W)
Week 9: Chargers (W)
Week 10: Lions (W)
Week 11: Ravens (W)
Week 12: Seahawks (W)
Week 13: Jaguars (W)
Week 14: Buccaneers