UNC fans have endured some awful defenses over the years. You might say we’re connoisseurs of bad defense by this point, our palates attuned to every nuance that distinguishes a truly awful defense from a run-of-the-mill average one. “I detect notes of loafing on the backside pursuit and a linebacker badly out of position, with a strong finish of arm tackling. Vintage 2014.”Hiring Bill Belichick (did you know he has eight Super Bowl rings?) if nothing else was supposed to cure the Tar Heel defensive blues. We badly wanted to see that. And true to our fan nature, we spent much of the season finding evidence to confirm our desires. Those nine sacks against Stanford? Making Chandler Morris miserable for an entire game? Those had us convinced the defense was rounding into a unit we could be proud of.Unfortunately, those two moments were, in retrospect, the season’s highlights. The defense regressed from that point forward. The Virginia game taught opponents to go straight at our defense rather than around it. The Stanford game taught our opponents to move the pocket. Wake, Duke, and NC State all had huge days rushing the football, combining for 10 rushing touchdowns against us. We totaled five sacks in our last three games.2025’s defense proved no better than 2024’s, and in some ways it was worseOn eye test, 2025 was an easier watch. Our eyes weren’t fooling us in that respect. Nothing’s more frustrating as a fan than watching a defense bust a huge play, and 2024 surrendered a lot of big plays. The trauma of the James Madison game dominates our memories of the 2024 defense, erasing recollections of whatever positive moments the 2024 defense had. “I didn’t want to punch a hole in the wall watching the 2025 defense; therefore it was better.” That’s an emotional truth, and those should never be discounted.Numbers and metrics don’t negate our eye test. However, numbers and metrics can point out things our eyes miss. They can highlight things our eyes would rather not see and our hearts might not want to admit.Let’s start with tempoA defense has to be measured by its strategic intentions. In that sense, 2024 and 2025 are apples and oranges, which makes comparisons more complicated.UNC 2024 sought high possession games, a strategic holdover from Drake Maye, Sam Howell, Omarion Hampton, and Josh Downs. For the defense, Job #1 was not allowing opposing offenses to keep the ball away from those talents. Accordingly, the defense went for broke, seeking sacks and turnovers, an excess of risk rather than caution. I’m not saying that was a smart thing to do with Jacolby Criswell and Connor Harrell at QB, but that’s the strategy Mack went with in 2024.UNC 2025 sought low possession games. The goal of the 2025 offense was as much “keep away” as it was “score points.” The goal of the 2025 defense was to force opponents to snap the ball as many times as possible, a classic “bend but don’t break” approach to things.Not including end-of-half kneel downs or last year’s bowl game…UNC’s 2024 defense faced 144 opponent possessions, an average of 12 per gameUNC’s 2025 defense faced 117, an average of 9.75 per game27 extra possessions is almost 3 extra games worth of opponent opportunity, given 2025’s “possessions faced” average. That difference make raw stats, like yards per game or points per game, functionally useless as comparisons. If you design a defense to “bend but don’t break,” one of the first things to look at would be the rate at which it broke.And 2025’s defense broke a lotTouchdowns: 2025 surrendered 37 touchdowns on 117 TDS. That’s a “break” rate of 31.6%. 2024 gave up 43 TDs on 144 drives. That’s a “break” rate of 30%. When the “bend but don’t break” defense breaks at same rate as the “don’t care if we break, it just gives the ball back to our offense,” that’s not good.4th Downs: 2025’s defense faced 32 “do or die” 4th down attempts, winning only eight of them. That’s a win rate of 25% on 4th down. 2024 faced 19 4th down tries and won 10, a win rate of 53%.3rd Downs: On 3rd downs, the stop rates were roughly equal: 37% for 2025, 37.5% for 2024.Points: 2025 surrendered 294 points on 117 drives, or 2.5 points per opponent possession. 2024 gave up 365 points on 144 drives, or 2.5 points per possession.Next piece of the puzzle: opponent strengthUNC’s schedule in 2024 and 2025 both rated as “easy.” 2024’s strength of schedule ended at an average of 95th (including the bowl game), while 2025’s averaged 104th (no bowl opponent). When we reduce strength of schedule to only opponent offenses, 2024 still comes out slightly ahead, 84th compared to 89th.In other words, both defenses faced an equivalent challenge over the course of their seasons.Verdict: Both were bad, but 2024 finishes slightly ahead of 2025FEI rates the defensive performance for 2025 at 98th in the country. 2024 finished at 74th. FEI comes to this conclusion by looking at the total number of possessions faced and the results of those possessions.The argument for improvement comes largely from raw data without considering how much more 2025’s team was designed to protect the defense than 2024’s. It also comes from wanting to believe that the guy with a reputation for NFL GOAT and defensive genius must have done something to make things better on that front. If Belichick did, the evidence for that will have to wait for next season.Memory can focus on Omarion Dollison turning three catches into 125 yards and a touchdown for JMU in 2024. Or, it can focus on Anderson Castle bullying UNC’s defensive interior for 125 yards and two touchdowns in 2025. It can focus on Desmond Reid totaling 210 all-purpose yards and a touchdown for Pitt in 2024. Or, it can focus on Will Wilson bullying the UNC defensive interior for four touchdowns. Point: we make a choice on that front.I remain hopeful that next season finds UNC football in a much better place. The program finally has competitive resources at its disposal, and the head coach wields a powerful reputation. However, year one, the offense fell off a cliff, and the defense regressed. That’s how a program goes 6-7, gets a massive cash infusion, resets the coaching staff… and gets worse.That combination has most UNC fans resigned to the probable prospect of a team that reverts to 7-6 or 8-5 next season and argues for a third year based on “progress” from 2025. The schedule gets tougher, and the brain trust of Belichick and Lombardi said as far back as September that 2026 would be a rebuild on a foundation of a large recruiting class. We’ll review that signing class later in the week, as well as look at where 2025 UNC football compares with other UNC football teams over the past 20 years.Until then, Go Heels