We ended the regular season on a positive note. Iowa and Indiana both covered as favorites on Friday prior to Penn State and Rutgers smashing the over on Saturday. We had a few misses sprinkled throughout the weekend, but we finished the week at 5-3-1. Can’t complain about that!We ended the regular season at 63-55-3. While bowl games are a whole different animal, we’ll wrap up the 2025 iteration of Betting the Big Ten with our conference championship predictions. This season’s conference championship slate consists of the least-anticipated No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup of all time, a win-and-in situation for BYU, and potential chaos in the ACC and Group of 5. Buckle up!All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.Troy at James Madison (-23.5), O/U 47.5, 7 p.m. FridayThe spread has slid dramatically from 20.5 out to 23.5 over the course of the week. This is due to the fact the betting public loves the Dukes as 77 percent of all bets are on James Madison, per The Action Network. Both teams have been excellent ATS, as they are both 8-4. However, with a potential CFP spot on the line, style points absolutely matter in this game. I like James Madison to cover easily.The pick: James Madison -23.5Kennesaw State (-2.5) at Jacksonville State, O/U 59.5, 7 p.m. FridayAs late as Monday afternoon, Jacksonville State was favored by 1.5 points. That has completely flipped over to Kennesaw State being favored by nearly a field goal. Crossing the bridge is one of the strongest indicators we look to here. It doesn’t hurt that Kennesaw is 8-4 ATS on the season as well.The pick: Kennesaw State -2.5North Texas (-2.5) at Tulane, O/U 66.5, 8 p.m. FridayThe public seems legitimately split on this matchup. The spread hasn’t moved an inch and the betting percentages are nearly 50/50. However, the season-long stats paint a pretty clear picture here — North Texas is 10-2 ATS on the season and 4-1 ATS on the road. Tulane is below .500 at 5-6-1 ATS and just 2-3-1 at home. That’s a sizable gap.The pick: North Texas -2.5UNLV at Boise State (-4), O/U 58.5, 8 p.m. FridayWe can’t just pick all favorites, can we? Despite Boise being favored in this game, 85 percent of all bets are on the Runnin’ Rebels of UNLV, according to The Action Network. UNLV has one of the best offenses in the country in a bit of a surprising move. Though its defense could use some work, I’m inclined to take UNLV, as it is 5-1 ATS on the road.The pick: UNLV +4BYU vs. Texas Tech (-12.5), O/U 49.5, Noon Saturday in Arlington, TexasWhen it comes to big games like this, motivation plays a huge factor. For Texas Tech, it will likely be in the CFP field no matter what happens. For BYU, this is a win-and-get-in situation where a loss eliminates it. That being said, this is no small task. Texas Tech is 11-1 ATS while BYU is 9-3. Both programs are middling against the total as well. I’m going to rely on my gut here, as my gut tells me that BYU is hungry, happy to still have its head coach and primed for an upset bid.The pick: BYU +12.5Miami Ohio vs. Western Michigan (-2.5), O/U 43.5, Noon in Detroit, MichiganThis is arguably the toughest game of the weekend to project. Both teams are middling against the total, which makes me gun-shy there. Against the spread, Miami is 8-4 while Western Michigan is a similar 8-3-1. However, there’s one minor data point I want to focus in on. As an underdog Miami is 1-4 ATS, while Western Michigan is 5-1-1 ATS as a favorite. That’s good enough for me.The pick: Western Michigan -2.5Georgia (-2.5) vs. Alabama, O/U 47.5, 4 p.m. in Atlanta, GeorgiaLike the BYU-Texas Tech game, this matchup is interesting when it comes to motivation. Georgia is guaranteed to be in the CFP no matter what. Alabama should be, but it’s not guaranteed with a loss. The Bulldogs are favored in this one, but somewhat surprisingly are just 5-7 ATS. Alabama is a strong 7-3-2 ATS. In a game the Crimson Tide will feel like they have to have, the stats back up they can get it done.The pick: Alabama +2.5Indiana vs. Ohio State (-4.5), O/U 47.5, 8 p.m. in Indianapolis, IndianaThe spread in this game has seesawed back and forth between 4.5 and 6 in Ohio State’s favor. The betting public seems genuinely split as well. We have to ignore the total, as Indiana almost always goes over while Ohio State nearly always goes under. Both teams are also excellent against the spread. In a game that seems to have no strong indicators and appears evenly matched, I’m going to take the points no matter who has them.The pick: Indiana +4.5Duke vs. Virginia (-3.5), O/U 57.5, 8 p.m. in Charlotte, North CarolinaIf Duke were to win this game, there’s a legitimate chance two Group of 5 teams make the CFP, as James Madison and North Texas could both be ranked ahead of Duke. Could the Blue Devils descend the CFP bracket into madness? Duke is okay ATS at 6-6 on the year, but Virginia has been much better at 8-4 ATS. More importantly, Virginia is 5-3 ATS as the favorite while Duke is 1-2 ATS as an underdog. I’m rooting for Duke, but my brain tells me Virginia will take care of business.The pick: Virginia -3.5
