BLOOMINGTON — Heisman votes were due Monday night. Fernando Mendoza stands as the prohibitive favorite to win the award, which would be the first in Indiana football history.The looming deadline was probably part of the reason why on Monday debate sparked about whether Mendoza (-5000 per BetMGM) was more deserving than the player oddsmakers consider his closest competition, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (+1500).A truer dual-threat quarterback, Pavia closed the season with remarkable style, on his way to leading the Commodores to their first 10-win season. On raw numbers alone, there’s a compelling case to argue for Pavia at No. 1.It misses something, though, that we might have to reckon with more often in the expanded-College Football Playoff era: Some players’ numbers are going to be affected by the way coaches react to their team’s dominance.Those raw totals don’t lie: Pavia had the better close to the season. Consider performances since Nov. 1:Pavia: 1,862 yards (1,494 passing, 368 rushing), 16 touchdowns (12 passing, four rushing), 74.6% completion rate.Mendoza: 1,101 yards, (1,057 passing, 44 rushing), 12 touchdowns (nine passing, three rushing), 69% completion rate.Vandy went 3-1 in that span, Indiana 5-0. Each achieved something historic according to their own program’s record books. Teamwide success decorates both players’ resumes.And on balance, Pavia delivered the more forceful closing argument.Why, then, is Mendoza the odds-on favorite? Well, a few things.First, Mendoza had more inarguable Heisman moments. These are subjective and therefore undeniably flawed, but Mendoza had Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State, all to varying degrees on a national stage. That will influence voters.More fundamentally than that, Mendoza was central to wins over better teams than Pavia.Indiana defeated three teams in the selection committee’s final top 25, and two teams in the playoff’s top five seeds. Vanderbilt beat four teams that were ranked when they faced the Commodores, but none of those teams were ranked this week. The ‘Dores finished 0-2 (at Alabama, at Texas) against teams ranked in Sunday’s final CFP top 25.If the moments matter, Mendoza had more meaningful ones, and he had more of them. Arguably many more.He also got far less opportunity. This is where philosophy, game state and roster management come into play.Again, dating back to Nov. 1, Pavia posted 205 total rushing-plus-passing attempts. Mendoza, just 101.Those are attempts, rather than total snap counts, so they’re a bit of a blunt instrument. But they still tell the story of two very different ends to seasons.Vanderbilt needed Pavia to be centrally involved in its offense, not just as a productive and creative force, but also because it needed him to win games late. Vanderbilt played two one-score games in November — the three-point loss at Texas and an overtime home win against Auburn — and the Tennessee victory was still in doubt heading into the fourth quarter.By comparison, Indiana was able to give Mendoza substantial time off in that stretch.He only attempted 21 passes in the Maryland win, and just 15 against Purdue. For the season, Mendoza has just 70 rush-plus-pass attempts in the fourth quarter (Pavia is 98 in the fourth quarter plus overtime).In the eight games — Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Wisconsin and Purdue — Indiana won by at least 24 points, Mendoza attempted just 14 fourth-quarter passes combined.Again, it’s a blunt instrument. But if you take those raw attempts totals and divide them into total yardage numbers, Mendoza is averaging 10.9 yards per run-plus-pass attempt since the start of November. Pavia’s number is 9.1. Still very good, but not as efficient.Hand Mendoza Pavia’s sheer opportunities, and averages suggest, for example, that he’d have 2,234 yards in the span of time we’re talking about.Mendoza’s snap counts are, of course, a choice. Curt Cignetti, like many of his peers, has been open about recognizing that in a 12-team playoff world, longevity and health are greater priorities than ever, and taking snaps out of players’ legs in October might pay even more meaningful dividends in January.Couple that to both Indiana’s specific methods for winning games, and clock rules generally shortening games, and we should probably expect to see more resumes like this one.The last time Indiana saw a quarterback complete an entire regular season without missing at least one game was 2018. That season, Peyton Ramsey posted 406 rushing-plus-passing attempts in 12 games. Through 13 this year, Mendoza has amassed just 385.Ultimately, these are not perfect comparisons. There are no perfect comparisons. And both players have a compelling argument — that’s why there’s every chance they’re going to go 1-2 in some order at the Heisman ceremony Saturday night.But a prevailing theme within the argument for Pavia has been that Mendoza walked into a program that had just won 11 games. That Pavia, in essence, elevated Vanderbilt football, and that he should not necessarily be punished in this debate for Mendoza enjoying more team success this season.If that is true, then so is the turnabout. Mendoza has undeniably lost stats across the last month and the whole season to his team’s sheer dominance, a dominance to which he is central.Should he lose Heisman votes because his team has so often been handed the luxury of shutting him down, its games already won? How voters answer that question will be fascinating.Want more Hoosiers coverage? Sign up for IndyStar’s Hoosiers newsletter. Listen to Mind Your Banners, our IU Athletics-centric podcast, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch the latest on IndyStar TV: Hoosiers.This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Heisman Trophy odds, Fernando Mendoza, Diego Pavia, stats, storylines