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How To Mitigate the Loss of Eugenio Suarez

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – OCTOBER 17: Eugenio Suárez after hitting a grand slam. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) Inspiration.Last Season, Eugenio Suarez hit 49 homers, divided between two teams.  This season, he will not be a Diamondback.  How are the Diamondbacks going to compensate for the loss? Let’s assume that Suarez will regress to only 10% more than his 2024 total of 30 homers (2026 projected 33 homers). Currently, Blaze Alexander is the leading candidate to play third base in Suarez’s place.  Lawlar is the secondary candidate.  Including their games in AAA Reno (a hitter friendly environment) they hit a lot less homers than Suarez.  My optimist projections (based on 120 games played in 2026):16 homers for Blaze Alexander (FG Depth Chart projected 12 homers).12 homers for Jordan Lawlar (FG Depth Chart projected 11 homers).How will the Diamondbacks mitigate the loss of Suarez?Option 1.  Acquire a power hitter who is projected to hit many homers.This option has the caveat that some possible acquisitions may not be affordable.Directly compensating for lost homers would keep homers about the same as last season.  That would be effective because my view is that optimal runs-scored will happen with a balance of getting runners on base and hitting home runs.To see a perspective of the need for getting on base (fire starters) and scoring baserunners (grill masters), see Diamondback Fire Starters & Grill Masters.  Interestingly Ketel Marte, who is still a Diamondback, was a fire starter AND a grill master.The acquired power hitter could play in one of three positions:  third base, first base, or outfield.Third Base.  The acquired player needs to hit more than 12 homers (33 homers is full replacement) next season.  Blaze Alexander become depth players, perhaps with Jordan Lawlar moving to the outfield. First Base. If acquired, Christian Walker (27 homers in 2025, projected at 25 to 30 homers) could platoon with Pavin Smith (projected at 12 homers in 100 games).  Together, my optimistic projection is they would hit 25 homers.  In addition, my view is that Christian Walker would be an effective pinch hitter (an intangible that would help win games). This acquisition would mitigate more than half of the lost homers.Outfield.  It’s not a new idea that Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy could be traded away to be replaced with a better outfielder.  The acquired player needs to hit more than their combined projection of 12 homers (33 homers is full replacement).Option 2.  Make marginal improvements in several areas.This option has the caveat that these improvements will require effort and action to achieve,Better Pitching. Improve pitching to achieve 39 less runs allowed (RAs), which is about 5% of total runs allowed.  Although the loss of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly to free agency has impact, my view is that Zac Gallen did not pitch very well, and the loss of Merrill Kelly will be mitigated either by re-signing him or another starting pitcher.  The 5% improvement could result from of less turnover of pitchers during the season, as well as the return of pitchers on the injured list.Increase baserunners.  Assuming that the Diamondbacks baserunners continue to score runs at a 33.2% pace, more baserunners could happen by the following improvement. The total impact would be 29 more runs.10% more walks by Diamondbacks batters. 54.4 more baserunners, 18 more runs.20% less grounded into double plays (GIDPs) by Diamondbacks batters, 36 more baserunners, 7 more runs.10% less caught stealing (CS) by Diamondbacks baserunners, 12.1 more baserunners, 4 more runs.To see a broader perspective of why baserunners are important, see What Statistics Will Reflect Whether the Diamondbacks Are On Track.To see why it’s great that Gabriel Moreno is still a Diamondback, see Thwarting Stolen Bases.Better Batting. This batting builds on the foundation that the team hits about the same number of homers as last season. Improve batting to increase percentage of baserunners who score from 33.2% to 34.8%.  That is realistic because it remains less than 2024, when it was 35.5%.  That builds on the improved number of baserunners to add 29 runs scored.  The caveat is that it’s unclear how to achieve that increase.The total impact of improvements in the three areas: 2025 total of 791 runs scored increased to 849 runs scored.2025 total of 785 runs allowed reduced to 746 runs allowed.The following table shows all the improvements (data from Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Team Rankings).Summary.Next season the Diamondbacks offense will lack Eugenio Suarez, who hit 49 homers, divided between two teams.At third base, my optimistic projection is that Blaze Alexander could hit 16 homers.  How will the Diamondbacks mitigate the loss of Eugenio Suarez?One option is to acquire a power hitter projected to hit many homers.   That hitter could play at third base, first base, or the outfield.Another option is to improve pitching, increase baserunners, and improve batting. Improving the pitching builds on a foundation of either re-signing Merrill Kelly or acquiring an alternative starting pitcher.  Improvement could result from less turnover of pitchers during the season, as well as the return of pitchers on the injured list.Increased baserunners could result from more walks by Diamondbacks batters, less grounded into double plays, and less caught stealing.Improved batting builds on a foundation of more baserunners, and will increase the percentage of baserunners who score runs. 

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