North Texas playoff scenarios, explained: How win, loss in AAC title game would impact CFP rankings originally appeared on The Sporting News.
Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.One of the biggest surprises during the 2025 college football season is the success of North Texas. Despite having a 301-373-11 overall record dating back to 1953, the Mean Green have reached 11 wins for the very first time in school history. It’s a big reason why UNT head coach Eric Morris was hired by Oklahoma State just last month. Now, North Texas has a chance to win its first conference championship since 2004, playing in the American Athletic Conference title game on Friday evening. The Mean Green also have a shot at earning a historic College Football Playoff bid. Let’s run through North Texas’ playoff scenarios.  MORE:CFB signing day winners and losersIs North Texas in the College Football Playoff? Not just yet. In the CFP’s second-to-last rankings heading into championship weekend, North Texas is ranked No. 24. That’s four spots behind North Texas’ opponent in the AAC title game, No. 20 Tulane. There are no other Group of Five teams ranked in between Tulane and North Texas, so presumably, one of the first spots of the 12-team field will come down to Friday night’s North Texas-Tulane game. UNT has yet to play the Green Wave this season, but the Mean Green are slight 2.5-point favorites. North Texas has to go on the road to play the Green Wave as Tulane was awarded the right to host, thanks to its higher CFP ranking.  MORE:Tracking Lane Kiffin’s 2026 class at LSUNorth Texas playoff scenarios North Texas wins AAC title gameIf North Texas wins the AAC title game, they would make the CFP as one of the highest-ranked conference championsThe Mean Green would likely jump to the No. 12 seed, since UNT is currently outside of the Top 12.It seems clear that the committee will award a bid to the eventual AAC champion. Both AAC teams in Tulane and North Texas are ranked higher than the Sun Belt’s JMU (No. 25). If five-loss Duke defeats Virginia in the ACC title game, there’s a possibility the committee could award two spots to Group of Five schools as the last two highest-ranked conference champions.  BENDER:What’s at stake in Big Ten championship between Ohio State, IndianaNorth Texas loses AAC title gameWith a loss to Tulane, there is no shot for UNT to earn a bid as a non-conference champion. MORE:Don’t let Miami-Notre Dame debate distract you from Alabama, the CFP’S elephant in room