Bet Sync

Predicting the CFP bracket before conference championship weekend

Michigan’s regular season didn’t end the way that many were hoping, as the Wolverines fell to Ohio State last Saturday to knock them out of the race for the College Football Playoff. While it was a disappointing end to the year, it looks like it will be an equally disappointing one for the Big Ten as a whole, as only three teams from the super-conference are likely to find their way into the playoff field this year.We’ll get to the final step in the journey this weekend with all the conference championships. This weekend has something of a different meaning now, as it more so serves to shuffle the seeding for the likes of the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12, while other conferences like the ACC and those in the Group of 5 are truly fighting to get one or two teams in the bracket.Today, we’ll be taking a look at how we expect conference championship weekend to play out and what the bracket should look like heading into Sunday.For some housekeeping purposes and to keep things organized, here are some quick predictions of who wins the relevant conference title games:Tulane defeated North Texas in the AAC Championship on FridayTexas Tech beats BYU in the Big 12 ChampionshipOhio State beats Indiana in the Big Ten ChampionshipGeorgia beats Alabama in the SEC ChampionshipVirginia beats Duke in the ACC ChampionshipWithout further ado, here’s how things might shake out with the results above:Top 4 seeds (first-round bye)1. Ohio State (13-0), 2. Georgia (12-1), 3. Texas Tech (12-1), 4. Indiana (12-1)After winning the Big Ten, Ohio State will be at 13-0 with no reason to be moved off the top spot. The Buckeyes have been the No. 1 team all year and are seriously set up for another run at a national title even with a ton of roster and coaching staff turnover last offseason. Behind them, Georgia should jump into the No. 2 spot. The Bulldogs have done a nice job rebounding since their early-season loss to Alabama and are poised to win this weekend’s rematch in Atlanta.Now things get a bit more interesting. Texas Tech has been a revelation in the Big 12 this year, standing head and shoulders above everyone else. The Red Raiders shouldn’t have an issue getting past BYU for a second time this year after handling the Cougars in Lubbock earlier this fall. As a 12-1 conference champ, the’ll take the No. 3 spot.Finally, Indiana will grab the No. 4 spot after losing a close Big Ten title game against Ohio State. Even though there will be some other teams worthy of the final bye (like Oregon and Texas A&M), Indiana shouldn’t be punished for losing in a conference championship game, especially against the No. 1 team.Seeds 5-8 (first-round home games)5. Oregon (11-1), 6. Ole Miss (11-1), 7. Texas A&M (11-1), 8. Oklahoma (10-2)The next group will involve four squads that aren’t competing in conference title week at all. Oregon quietly had another dominant year in the Big Ten, going 11-1 in the regular season with its lone loss coming against Indiana. The Ducks slid up to No. 5 this week and should stay there in the final rankings. Meanwhile, Ole Miss actually moved up a spot with Lane Kiffin now the head coach at LSU. Clearly the committee doesn’t think too much of the move or it hindering the Rebels’ performance in the playoff.Texas A&M meanwhile had a sour end to its regular season, losing an in-state rivalry game against Texas. Had the Aggies pulled off the win, they’d have secured an undefeated regular season and would’ve earned a trip to the SEC championship game. Instead, they’ll get a chance to sit at home this weekend and rest up ahead of their first round matchup.Oklahoma is the best bet to grab the final first-round home game after finishing off its regular season at 10-2 following a win over LSU. Brent Venables’ program took a big step forward this year thanks to a dominant defense and the dual-threat ability of John Mateer. Let’s see if they’ve got a few more big games in them.Last 4 in (first-round road games)9. Notre Dame (10-2), 10. Alabama (10-3), 11. Virginia (11-2), 12. Tulane (11-2)Now the fun begins as we sort through the final auto-bids and whatever is going on in the ACC. We’ll start with the two that are pretty simple. The winner of the AAC (Tulane) will be in, as will Virginia if it defeats Duke in the ACC championship like it’s expected to do. These two will be in the bracket, but likely in the final two spots.Next up, we’ll keep Notre Dame in the No. 9 spot. Like it or not, the committee has favored the Irish over Miami all season long, consistently ranking Miami behind Notre Dame despite the two having the same record and the Hurricanes having a head-to-head win in Week 1. There’s little reason to expect them to change their thinking now, so Notre Dame likely ends up in the field.That leaves us with Alabama (10-3 in our scenario), Miami (10-2), BYU (11-2), Vanderbilt (10-2), and Texas (9-3) in the hunt for the final spot. In this week’s rankings Alabama came in at No. 9, moving up one spot. Even with a loss in the SEC championship, it seems unrealistic that the committee would punish the Tide for losing in a conference championship game while Miami, Vanderbilt, and Texas sit at home. Meanwhile, BYU would get bumped out since it’s already ranked behind Alabama. We didn’t see a three-loss team earn an at-large bid, but it seems more feasible this time around.

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