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Stats Corner: Advanced Stats of the Title Game

And then there was one. Just one game left in the Mountain West season. The computers have crunched the numbers (do not question the overlords), the conference title game is set, and while a College Football Playoff spot isn’t on the line this year, bragging rights and a championship trophy certainly are.  This week on Stats Corner, we are going to look at the Advanced Stats for Boise State and UNLV over the season going into Friday’s match up.The Starting Line: Field Position BattleThe hidden battle in any football game often begins with field position. Getting off to a strong start offensively, or forcing an opponent into tough territory, can dictate the flow of a drive.Boise State’s Start: The Broncos generally enjoy favorable starting field position, averaging their drive starts 71.2 yards from the end zone (65th nationally). Their opponents also start relatively deep, averaging 70.8 yards from the end zone (78th nationally). Boise State rarely backs themselves up, with just 17.9% of their drives beginning inside their own 20-yard line (62nd nationally), while their opponents are even less likely to start deep (12.9%, 125th nationally). This suggests the Broncos are effective at flipping the field position in their favor.UNLV’s Start: The Rebels, on the other hand, face a tougher uphill battle. Their drives typically begin 72.7 yards from the end zone (105th nationally). However, they also force their opponents to start deeper, with an average starting position of 72.2 yards from the end zone (43rd nationally). A significant challenge for UNLV is getting backed up: a full quarter (25%) of their drives start inside their own 20-yard line (130th nationally), while their opponents face a similar challenge only 15.9% of the time (101st nationally).Offense Field Position Boise StateOffense Backed Up Boise StateDefense Field Position Boise StateDefense Backed Up UNLVField Position Edge: Boise State (3-1) Boise State demonstrates a clear advantage in winning the field position battle, consistently starting further from their own end zone and forcing opponents into tougher spots.The Money Downs: Third & Fourth Down EfficiencyConverting crucial third and fourth downs can sustain drives, wear down defenses, and ultimately put points on the board. Let’s see who holds the advantage on these pivotal plays.Offensive Clutch:Boise State: The Broncos are a third-down machine, converting an impressive 7.0 third downs per game (4th nationally) on 15.5 attempts (5th nationally) for a 45.0% conversion rate (26th nationally). On fourth down, they’re aggressive, attempting 2.8 attempts per game (16th nationally) and converting 1.5 of those (20th nationally). While their 54.8% fourth-down conversion rate is 61st nationally, their willingness to go for it and their success rate are notable.UNLV: The Rebels boast an even higher third-down conversion percentage at 49.6% (9th nationally), successfully moving the chains 5.9 times per game (33rd nationally) on only 11.9 attempts (126th nationally). This indicates high efficiency on fewer opportunities. On fourth down, UNLV is more conservative, attempting 1.7 conversions per game (85th nationally) and converting 1.0 (70th nationally), but with an effective 57.9% conversion rate (51st nationally).Defensive Stand:UNLV: The Rebels’ defense is stifling on third down, allowing the fewest attempts in the country at just 11.8 per game (behind only Rutgers and Air Force). They concede a meager 3.4 third-down conversions per game (2nd nationally, behind only Texas ATM, I mean Texas A&M) for an exceptional 28.5% conversion rate allowed (4th nationally, behind Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Virginia). This means opponents rarely get an easy pass on third down against UNLV. On the other hand, the Rebels’ defense allows a concerning 2.8 fourth-down attempts per game (124th nationally) and 1.5 conversions (113th nationally), leading to a 54.8% conversion rate allowed (70th nationally). This indicates a potential vulnerability.Boise State: The Broncos’ defense is also strong on third down, allowing 12.6 attempts per game (25th nationally) and a top-10 mark of 4.2 conversions per game. Their 33.1% third-down conversion rate allowed is 18th in the country. On fourth down, Boise State is particularly stingy, allowing opponents to go for it only 1.6 times per game (29th nationally) and converting a mere 0.6 times (14th best conversion rate at 38.9%).Offensive 3rd down converted Boise StateOffensive 3rd conversion rate UNLVDefensive 3rd down converted UNLVDefensive 3rd conversion rate UNLVOffensive 4th down converted Boise StateOffensive 4th conversion rate UNLVDefensive 4th down converted Boise StateDefensive 4th conversion rate Boise StateThird & Fourth Down Edge: Tied (4-4) Both teams show strengths here. UNLV’s offense is incredibly efficient on third down, while their defense excels at limiting third-down conversions. Boise State’s offense is persistent on both third and fourth downs, and their defense is tough to beat on fourth down.Finishing Strong: The Red Zone ReportGetting into the red zone is one thing; consistently scoring is another. This is where drives translate into crucial points.Offensive Execution:UNLV: The Rebels are masters of red zone efficiency, scoring on a remarkable 93.75% of their red zone trips (6th nationally). They make 4.4 trips to the red zone per game (21st nationally).Boise State: The Broncos are solid, scoring on 86.84% of their red zone entries (49th nationally), averaging 3.5 trips per game (67th nationally).Defensive Stand:UNLV: The Rebels’ defense is good at limiting red zone opportunities, allowing only 2.7 opponent trips per game (19th nationally). However, once opponents reach the red zone, they are quite successful, scoring 2.5 times per game (30th nationally) for a 90.0% conversion rate allowed (123rd nationally).Boise State: The Broncos’ defense allows 3.5 red zone trips per game (62nd nationally) and 3.2 scores per game (81st nationally). Their red zone conversion rate allowed is 89.7% (120th nationally).Redzone Offensive attempts UNLVRedzone Offense Percentage Scoring UNLVRedzone Defensive attempts UNLVRedzone Defense Percentage Scoring Boise StateRed Zone Edge: UNLV (3-1) UNLV’s offensive red zone efficiency is elite, making them a serious threat to score whenever they get close. While their defense allows a high conversion rate once inside the 20, their ability to limit trips makes them formidable. Boise State’s red zone defense shows a similar vulnerability.The Fundamentals: Down & DistanceThe average yards gained per play is a fundamental indicator of offensive and defensive effectiveness, often dictating what options are available on subsequent downs.Offensive Prowess:UNLV: The Rebels boast an explosive offense, averaging a whopping 6.8 yards per play (7th nationally). This consistently puts them in manageable second and third-down situations, making their drives more sustainable.Boise State: The Broncos average a respectable 5.4 yards per play (76th nationally).Defensive Toughness:Boise State: The Broncos’ defense is more adept at limiting explosive plays, allowing 5.3 yards per play (52nd nationally).UNLV: The Rebels’ defense struggles here, allowing 6.1 yards per play (115th nationally), which could lead to opponents facing fewer critical third-down situations.Offense Down and Distance UNLVDefense Down and Distance Boise StateDown & Distance Edge: Tied (1-1) UNLV’s explosive offense grants them a significant advantage in moving the ball, consistently setting up favorable down and distance. However, Boise State’s defense is better at preventing those same explosive plays.The Final Tally: A Showdown of StrengthsBased on this advanced statistical breakdown, both teams bring distinct strengths to the Mountain West Championship.Total Advanced Stats Score: Boise State 9 – UNLV 9This statistical tie underscores what should be a tightly contested championship game.Boise State will look to leverage their superior field position, strong third-down offense, and stingy fourth-down defense.UNLV will rely on their incredibly efficient third-down offense, high-octane red zone scoring, and explosive plays to move the ball.The game will likely come down to who can execute in critical situations and who can exploit the other’s defensive red zone vulnerabilities. Get ready for a Mountain West Championship battle.

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