BOISE STATE BRONCOS VS. UNLV REBELSLocation: Boise, Idaho (Albertsons Stadium)Date/Time: Friday, December 5th at 6:00 p.m. (Mountain Time)Television: FoxStreaming: Fox Sports AppRadio: KBOI 670 AM/KBOI 93.1 FM (Bronco Radio Network)Head-to-Head: Boise State leads the all-time series via a 12-3 margin, with UNLV last winning a game against the Broncos back in 1976. Remarkably, this will be the fifth meeting between the two programs in the last three seasons. Earlier this year, Boise State defended The Blue against the Rebels with a 56-31 victory that was powered by running back Dylan Riley and his 200-yard rushing performance.TALE OF THE TAPEBoise State: 8-4 (6-2 in MW), UNLV: 10-2 (6-2 in MW)Mountain West vs. Mountain WestBSU: Head Coach Spencer Danielson (2nd Full Year, 23-7 Overall Record)USU: Head Coach Dan Mullen (1st Year at UNLV, 113-63 Overall Record)Last WeekBSU: Managed to eek out a one-point win on the road against Utah State. It wasn’t the prettiest of games for the Broncos, but in the end, they found a way. Quarterback Max Cutforth put on by far his best statistical performance of the year since stepping for injured starter Maddux Madsen. He passed for 341 yards, two touchdowns, and, most importantly, avoided turning the ball over once. And, incredibly, offensive coordinator Nate Potter elected to roll the dice with Cutforth, letting him loose with 49 pass attempts.The last Bronco quarterback to eclipse that number?“Hurricane Hank” Bachmeier back in 2019 as a true freshman against Florida State when he attempted 51 passes in his first-ever start.UNLV: Wasted no time bringing home the Fremont Cannon after a 42-17 win over rival Nevada in Reno. The Wolf Pack had shown some signs of progress in the last few weeks, but the Rebels paid no mind to that. The UNLV offense remained balanced, passing and rushing for over 225 yards a piece. However, running back Jai’Den Thomas was the star of the show with four rushing touchdowns on 11 carries for 103 yards. The defense forced a pair of turnovers that helped seal the deal, covering up for quarterback Anthony Colandrea’s two interceptions.It was the first multi-interception game for the junior since late September when UNLV pulled out a heart-stopping victory against Miami of Ohio.What Allows Boise State to Win Saturday?Maddux Madsen being truly healthy.Max Cutforth did a hell of a job when he was thrust into the spotlight a month ago against Fresno State.It was a bumpy road with the loss to the Bulldogs and the monsoon debacle against San Diego State.But rather than swimming in his sorrows, Cutforth doubled down and led this team to two consecutive wins that allowed the Broncos to be in this position. The Nampa native drastically improved from game one to game four, and if Boise State finds a way to win Friday night and capture a third-straight Mountain West championship, he is the most important reason as to why.With that all being said, UNLV is a different beast compared to Colorado State or Utah State.There is a reason the Rebels finished 10-2, only losing to the Broncos and New Mexico.Maddux Madsen was relatively healthy during the first meeting in October, finishing with 253 passing yards, four touchdowns, and just one interception.Better yet, his 60.9% completion percentage kept the offense ahead of the chains and gave room for Dylan Riley to explode on the ground with a career-high 201 yards.The yin and yang of the pass and run complemented each other to a tee that day.Is it realistic to expect another scoring barrage that breaks the 50-point mark?Not necessarily.It does feel forgotten that the Rebels were very much a live fighter in that game, down 28-24 at halftime.The second half 28-point run by Boise State applied an abundance of makeup on that performance, but the start was not all sunshine and rainbows.Maddux Madsen being legitimately healthy and ready to go makes me feel much more confident in the Broncos coming out on top.But is he?There’s no doubt in my mind that Dan Mullen and the UNLV defense will elect to bring pressure early and see what “MadDog” has in the tank. What Allows UNLV to Win Saturday?Attack…attack…attack!It’s fair to say that Boise State has been the Rebels’ boogeyman during the last three years, those being the golden age of UNLV football.Last year, a win on The Blue in December against Ashton Jeanty and company would have sent them to the College Football Playoff.This year, a win in October would have not only given the best record in the Mountain West to the Rebels, but it would have guaranteed them of hosting the title game for the second time in three years.If it weren’t for those meddling Broncos!The recurring theme of those losses was that UNLV played tighter than usual, committed costly turnovers, and didn’t keep its foot on the gas.With Maddux Madsen returning to the field for the first time in over a month, this is akin to smelling blood in the water.It’s the vulnerable Achilles’ heal they have been looking for.To me, the mentality of UNLV going into this ever-so-similar situation needs to be one of aggression and confident decision-making.Blitz early and often.Load the box.Make Maddux Madsen win this game.The Rebels went toe-to-toe with the Broncos in October before letting go of the rope in the second half.And that was during their run of defensive apathy where they allowed 40+ points to three straight opponents (48 to Air Force, 56 to Boise State, and 40 to New Mexico).Since then, UNLV has allowed ten points to Colorado State, 26 to Utah State, ten to Hawai’i, and 17 to Nevada.The defense is shaping up at the right time to break the curse that Boise State football has over them.Who Pulls Out The Win?It is fitting that in the final year of the current Mountain West, we get a third rendition of Boise State and UNLV.The defector – leaving for supposed greener pastures.The loyalist – staying behind with his fellow comrades.There is no secret to whom the folks at the conference’s headquarters will be discreetly rooting for.Granted, that can be said for both the Mountain West and Pac-12.Fireworks will be a guarantee on Friday night, and I expect the field goal posts to end up in the Boise River once again.Give me Boise State to close its chapter as a Mountain West member by becoming the second school in conference history to win three consecutive conference championships and the first in the championship game era of the conference to do so.Shoutout to Gary Patterson and his TCU Horned Frogs for dominating from 2009-2011 with a perfect 23-0 conference record.Petterson’s Prediction: Boise State to Win Outright, Boise State to Cover, and Take the Over.FanDuel Odds: Boise State -4.5, Total of 58.5Boise State Broncos 38 – UNLV Rebels 28Let us at the Mountain West Connection know your prediction for the Mountain West Championship in the comments!
